A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
